What Hillary needs, what Obama wants

Last Modified: 22 Apr 2008
By: Felicity Spector

It's not whether Hillary Clinton wins the Pennsylvania primary tonight but by how much.

Barack Obama's already conceded he's got little chance of winning, although he predicted it would be closer than everyone thinks. And eager to play down expectations - although the Clinton camp are said to be "exuding confidence" - they're playing down talk of a double-digit victory.

Pennsylvania, with its 4.2 million Democrats, is a typical Clinton heartland, all white working class suburbs and industrial towns.

Clinton has picked up some key endorsements - the Governor, Ed Rendell, and the mayors of Philadelphia and Pennsylvania, while Obama's bagged a senator, Bob Casey, in his camp.

Some pundits say Hillary Clinton could need as many as two million Democrats to turn out - more than twice the number who voted in the last primary in 2004.

In terms of money, you could call it an Obama walkover - he's outspent Clinton by around a third, and she's been left owing more cash than she has left in the bank.

The biggest battle has been for the undecideds - if you can believe that at this stage of the whole interminable process, there are still people who have yet to make up their minds.

Where have they been for the last 6 months? Mars?

There's something for both sides in the statistics. Obama's hoping that a surge of last minute registrations means there's a host of new younger voters applying to take part - voters who've traditionally swung his way.

But across the other primaries, people who've made up their minds in the last three days have tended to support Hillary Clinton.

So after two months of non-stop campaigning across Philadephia, millions of dollars and some startlingly strident and vitriolic campaign ads, it seems clear resolution is no closer.

Even if Clinton does particularly well, the state's electoral system is so complicated she's unlikely to emerge with more than a 10 delegate advantage. So added to their current standing of Obama's 1,648 delegates to 1,509 for Clinton, it'll still be down to the superdelegates and the convention floor.

State officials are predicting a record turnout today, so at least it's all good for democracy, although top Democrats are worried that the increasingly bitter tone between these two rivals is dragging the party down into the mud.

Need a stick to beat Obama with? Now you can paint him as elitist and out of touch. Want to hammer Hillary's weak point? Depict her as shrill, and careless with the truth.

In the end, though, tonight's primary is all about numbers. Who's voting, where - and for who.

Some pundits say Hillary Clinton could need as many as two million Democrats to turn out - that's more than twice the number who voted in the last primary in 2004.

But that could be what it takes for her to persuade enough superdelegates that she's got what it takes to defeat John McCain.

Because all they're interested in is November - and which candidate can take this contest all the way.