Treaty vote is first step for Irish government
Updated on 02 October 2009
The Three Labours of Biffo are about to commence.
The Three Labours of Biffo have commenced. 'Biffo' is the Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen. I could tell you what it stands for but this is a family website.
The Three Labours are these; first he must persuade the Irish to vote for the same Lisbon Treaty they rejected last year. Second he must persuade his coalition partners to set up a Toxic Bank, using taxpayers’ money to buy up bad debt. Third he must get through a budget which will be really and truly savage in the way it slashes benefits and public sector pay.
Failure at any one could well bring down his unpopular government. Success at all three does not guarantee its survival.
And so to the first labour.
The Lisbon Treaty, you may remember, was once called the European Constitution. Its headline measures are the creation of a European President and Foreign Minister and extensions to the system of Qualified Majority Voting. But there’s loads more. It’s a massive tidying up exercise of the way the EU runs itself.
The trouble is the Dutch and even the French voted against the Constitution. So it was scaled back a bit and repackaged as the Lisbon Treaty.
Then last year the Irish voted against that too.
The reasons they did had little to do with European Presidents and Foreign Ministers. They were more to do with worries – unfounded say Lisbon’s supporters – about changes to Ireland's positions on abortion, neutrality and tax (as I said, there’s loads in that Treaty). They also didn't want to lose their European Commissioner.
But the Irish people’s 'No' wasn't to be the last word.
The Irish political elite, came over all Mrs Doyle-like; 'Have another wee vote. Vote 'Yes'. Ah go on. You will, you will, you will.' (Father Jack has been in some unofficial 'No' campaign posters here this week; again the precise wording raises what we call taste and decency issues).
The Commissioner will be kept. Assurances have been made on the key issues of abortion, neutrality, tax and here we go; Lisbon 2.
Those assurances however aren't the biggest difference. Lisbon 1 was before The Fall. Lisbon 2 is After The Fall. The Fall of Lehman Brothers, the teetering of the international financial system. Ireland has been hit hard (see Labours Two and Three).
On Friday I spoke to Finian McGrath TD. A member of the Irish parliament who voted 'No' last time but who will vote 'Yes' this time. Partly because of the assurances, mostly because he’s worried about how Ireland can climb out of the economic hole it's in without being at the heart of Europe.
The question is will enough voters feel the same way to ratify the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland, save Biffo for the next Labour. We'll know the answer by dinner time on Saturday.
And after that dealing with the Lisbon Treaty could be David Cameron’s Labour. The second one he has to overcome.
