The race narrows...
Updated on 02 November 2008
Mixed messages from the polls today, as it seems most voters really have made up their minds.
A quarter of voters have already cast their ballots, thanks to early voting in a number of states.
And, says ABC, 93 per cent of the rest say they've now decided which way to vote. That doesn't mean the campaigns can afford to let up; the clocks went back last night and Obama volunteers in Florida said they worked right through the extra hour.
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Because believe the latest figures, and the race is getting closer. The national figure - for what it's worth - shows Obama's lead shrinking slightly to six points.
But it's those crucial battleground states that really matter. Take Virginia - where we'll be broadcasting live tomorrow - a traditional Republican heartland which hasn't seen a Democratic presidential candidate winning for 44 years, when LBJ scraped a narrow win.
Obama has been riding high in the polls here but a Mason Dixon poll carried out last week for several local papers puts Obama on 47 with McCain on 44. That's within the margin of error and too close to call.
With large numbers of white voters still undecided, if McCain can win them over, he could just be in with a chance. That's why he spent most of yesterday in the state, trying to win back ground.
"We're a few points down, but we're coming back", he said. "I'm not afraid of the fight, I'm ready for it."
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But it's Pennsylvania where the Republicans are throwing most of their resources. It hasn't gone red since 1988 but in typically compulsive style, McCain has bet his campaign on a win - despite most polls putting him 12 points down.
And there is some evidence that it's paying off: latest polls have changed the state from 'Strong Democrat' to 'Weak', giving Obama just under a six point lead.
It seems the Joe the Plumber strategy is gaining traction with blue-collar workers suspicious about an Obama White House 'spreading the wealth'.
There's good news for McCain in Ohio too - it's moved into marginal territory; the running average shows Obama's lead is just four points. And one survey, by Mason-Dixon, just put McCain ahead.
Not that any of this is denting the Obama-mania: there are still pundits-a-plenty predicting a landslide. It's a veritable flurry of state-poker.
If Obama wins just one of Virginia, North Carolina or Georgia - it's a blow-out. If McCain wins Pennsylvania - that's his best and final chance.
It's enough to give you a massive headache. McCain's team is still hopeful: pledging to outspend Obama's campaign by ten million dollars in these final days. "The race is changing quickly," says his pollster - although he wouldn't predict the outcome.
So, in these last, final, crazy hours, tens of thousands of campaigners will be out on the streets, working the phones, canvassing door to door. It could all come down to turnout and who can best get out their vote. X marks the spot.
