Q&A: what is happening in Zimbabwe?

Q. Who has won the election?

A. Virtually all observers are agreed that Robert Mugabe lost the first round of voting on Saturday to the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

However, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has yet to release the full results despite growing demands for clarity from countries including Britain and the US.

Q. What does the ruling party say?

A. The 84-year-old's Zanu-PF party have tellingly refrained from claiming victory in the crucial poll.

Senior Zanu-PF figures have rejected reports that a deal had been struck.

Q. What does the opposition say?

A. In his first public appearance since the election, Tsvangirai insisted last night his party had won, denying any formal negotiations were taking place with Mugabe.

"There is no way the MDC will enter in any deal before ZEC [Zimbabwe Electoral Commission] has actually announced the result. That's the legal position.

"It is not confirmed by the [ZEC]. So any speculation about deals, about negotiations, about reaching out is not there," he said.

Q. What happens next?

A. Under Zimbabwean electoral rules a party must get at least 51 per cent of the vote to win outright, otherwise there will be a second, run-off vote.

It is not clear if Tsvangari has won the more than 50 per cent needed to avoid the second vote.

The Zimbabwe Election Support Network, a group of civil society organisations, said its random sample of polling stations indicated Tsvangirai had won just over 49 per cent of the vote and Mugabe 42 per cent.

Q.What are the possible outcomes of the election?

A. There is speculation that the Mugabe is on the verge of stepping down.

Alternatively the vote will go to a second round in three weeks time. If this happens there are fears both inside and outside Zimbabwe that the hiatus before a run-off vote would spark serious violence.

Q. What else has been suggested?

A. South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu suggested that an international peace-keeping force may be needed to protect human rights in Zimbabwe.

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