Mugabe endgame: the options

Last Modified: 27 Jun 2008
By: Jonathan Rugman

Diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Rugman considers what might happen in post-election Zimbabwe.

Robert Mugabe will be re-elected today unopposed, but the question now is whether the endgame of his rule really has begun.

Western diplomats admit more sanctions will probably achieve little - he's already survived a collapsed economy, after all.

And though African leaders have at last condemned him, it's perhaps not enough to make much difference.

Mugabe himself reportedly offered to resign after losing the first round, though Zimbabwe's military junta persuaded him to stay on.

Mugabe's henchmen

And it is what these henchmen do next that will decide Zimbabwe's fate.

First among equals is housing minister Emmerson Mnangagwa. He's Mugabe's long time enforcer and most likely heir.

First among equals is housing minister Emmerson Mnangagwa. He's Mugabe's long time enforcer and most likely heir, notorious for his role in mass killings in Matabeleland during the 1980s and the bulldozing of opposition shanty towns in 2005.

Then there's General Constantine Chiwenga who is Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence force.

Alongside him Augustine Chihuri, the national police commissioner.

And retired Major-General Paradzayi Zimondi, who runs the prison service.

Like Mugabe, they all fought as guerillas against white rule. The seizure of white farms, plus the trade in arms and diamonds with the Congo has made them rich.

And this along with fear of prosecution for war crimes in Matabeleland stops them from ceding power to anyone else.

A 'soft' coup?

But could they trigger a "soft coup", forcing Mugabe into retirement in the next few months?

Right now they have little to gain from his exit. Their skill is thugery not politics; they've no status inside or outside Zimbabwe. It may only be complete economic collapse - the inability of the state to function - that triggers Mugabe's departure.

Deal or no deal?

A deal between the generals and Tsvangarai could benefit neither side.

If the MDC leader accepter Mugabe staying on as president, Tsvangarai's credibility would be destroyed. One member of Mugabe's politburo has told Channel 4 News that Tsvangarai will never be allowed to share power.

"Tsangarai is given instructions by the American and British Ambassadors," he said. "And their policy is regime change. We are dangerously close to civil war now and a lot of blood will be shed."

What will the army do?

There's a chance that parts of the armed forces eventually revolt. Half the troops are already on leave because they can't be paid or fed.

Though, as one ambassador in Harare puts it, waiting for the army to revolt is like Waiting for Godot.

After the elections?

Observers fear two events once this election is over. First is another refugee exodus as the economy sinks even lower.

More likely though is the seizure of the last remaining white farms, the final phase of Mugabe's so called land reform. On Wednesday the Foreign Office rewrote its travel advice for the country.

"There are increasing rumours about British nationals being targeted or expelled from the country" the FCO wrote. "You are strongly advised to have your own contingency plan in place for how you would leave at short notice...the consular assistance we will be able to provide will be severely limited"

Options: Fight or Flight?

There are three options for opposition supporters. Fight back, get out or lie low. But the MDC's already been forced to pull out of today's poll and is unlikely to wage war on an empty stomach.

Far more likely that Zimbabwe is run Burma-style by a cabal of Generals answering to Robert Mugabe as now - until illness or age or economic meltdown finally force him out.