Last chance saloon

Last Modified: 04 Mar 2008
By: Felicity Spector

Can Hillary swing the Lone Stars and the Buckeyes?

She's not giving up yet: Hillary Clinton's been criss-crossing Texas and Ohio confident of doing well in tonight's primaries - insisting "I'm just getting warmed up".

And there is some succour from the latest Zogby poll which gives her a narrow lead over Obama in Texas, with 47 per cent to his 44 per cent - and she's clawed back a loss in Ohio to stand level with Obama on 44 per cent.

Perhaps a sign that her attacks on the Illinois senator are working - at least, raising doubts in voters minds over national security - and his position on NAFTA.

Or maybe its just that voters still can't decide between the two. Whatever, Texas Democrats can rarely have enjoyed such a pivotal role, their bizzare prima-caucus system with its arcane delegate entitlements can rarely have come under such public glare.

Ohio has been here before of course: as the swing state sine qua non, voters must be used to balancing on the knife-edge.

Losing both states would realistically put Hillary out of the race - her husband Bill has already admitted as much - however much she's talking about heading for Philadelphia no matter what.

And there have been worrying signs for Clinton from some of tonight's less well-covered states, like Rhode Island, which is proving anything but the shoo-in her team must have assumed.

But it's what happens if she wins just one of the big prizes - possibly the most likely scenario - that's poses all the questions for her campaign.

Delegate for delegate, there's still hardly anything between the two rivals. Neither are anywhere near close to the 2,025 they need to secure the nomination. It's more of a moral pressure on the one least likely - to call it a day and concede.

Here's Obama's campaign director David Plouffe, in a memo: "At some point there has to be a reckoning. What is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math."

To stay in the race she'll have to win Ohio and, say, Rhode Island at the very least. Her team might then push for her wins in Michigan and Florida, whose delegates are not being allowed to take part in the convention, to be recognised.

It's almost being made up on the fly: as one strategist put it: "You can see how they didn't prepare beyond Super Tuesday."

But the math isn't handing this thing to Obama either - even if he does well tonight - Senator Clinton will still be snapping at his heels. In so many ways, they've both come too far, fought so hard, hungered so much, to surrender nicely.

Snapshot of tonight's main races

Texas: the Lonestar state. With 228 traditionally conservative delegates at stake Clinton is relying on substantial support from its 8.3 million Hispanic voters to help her. She's also been playing up her national security credentials - like the endorsement of some retired generals - and her latest ad knocking Obama's record: "Senator Obama, as chairman of an oversight committee charged with the force of fighting al-Qaida in Afghanistan, was too busy running for president to hold even one hearing"

Ohio: the Buckeye state. A large white working class electorate would once have meant certain victory for Clinton, but this demographic has been moving Obama's way. However her strength on the economy and the recent row over the sincerity of Obama's pledge to renegotiate NAFTA could help her - whether by enough to make a substantial impact remains to be seen.