How McCain is losing the numbers game

Last Modified: 09 Oct 2008
By: Felicity Spector

Less than four weeks to go and John McCain is in trouble on what should be his safest ground.

Not only do the latest polls - from Reuters/Cspan and Zogby - give Obama an increased national lead of four points, with 48 to McCain's 44 - more importantly Obama is ahead in some of the key battleground states.

And he's also out in front among women. And in all age groups except the over 70s, who are clearly sticking with one of their own.

The most recent polls carried out in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio show McCain is trailing - all states he was once expected to win.

Barring some kind of 'October surprise', the numbers, and events are conspiring against the Republicans.

Under "almost any feasible scenario" according to Politico - "McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of these four states".

And that, say Democratic strategists, hints at an Obama landslide in the making. This was always what McCain's team was afraid of - hence the gamble of the Sarah Palin pick.

It was also what motivated the bizarre decision to abandon the debate and return to Washington to help 'broker a deal' on the bailout plan, inconveniently nixed by his own party. And now, we have the intensely negative turn of the last few days.

Palin's been dispatched to conservative strongholds in an effort to whip up that base but, barring some kind of 'October surprise', the numbers, and events are conspiring against the Republicans.

A closer look at the poll figures - with the caveat that these are just polls, and no-one has actually voted yet - show a pretty consistent picture.

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. In the Buckeye state - where Obama's been concentrating his efforts today - the impact of the credit crunch has put Obama up between 3 and 6 per cent, depending which poll you read.

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In Florida six polls over the last few days give Obama a lead of between 2 and 7 points over McCain.

He's also substantially ahead in Virginia - once a Republican stronghold - in Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

McCain's efforts to disassociate himself from the last eight years don't seem to be convicing many voters.

It's a steeply uphill struggle: Gallup has just found that only 9 per cent of Americans are "satisfied" with the direction of the United States right now - that's the lowest level since that question was first asked back in the seventies.

And it's Obama who's profiting from this: maintaining support ratings of over 50 per cent, despite the recent slew of negative ads.

And there's one key demographic which McCain is now desperate to win back - white women

With the Palin effect fast waning - they're moving steadily towards the Obama camp.

A review of polls carried out by Rutgers University says that in 14 battleground states more women now favour Obama than McCain. The Republicans' lead among white women is shrinking - just four points ahead at the last count, and remember an 11 point lead with this group helped put George W back in the White House four years ago.

Traditionally nine million more women vote than their male counterparts. They're seriously worried about the economy and unlikely to be impressed by negative attacks.

Now Democratic pollsters dare to dream: talking about "the complete loss of faith in GOP politics" and "the economic tsunami".

Maybe that's why, as Huffington Post reports, the Obama team are confident enough to have organised a complete transition team in waiting, preparing policies, and potential government appointees.

Confidence born out by the figures so far, for sure. But then, this is politics, and human nature and there's nothing predictable - or inevitable - about that.