Hillary and the front runner's curse
Updated on 12 November 2007
It's what happens when you're on top - there's nowhere to go but down.
First Hillary Clinton is buffeted by a series of polls showing her lead in New Hampshire shrinking fast. Now she's in trouble in Iowa - that crucial first-in-the-nation state, where she had been hoping to see off her rivals once and for all.
This weekend saw the Democrats biggest event of the year - the Jefferson-Jackson dinner - when the candidates went all out to woo supporters.
Nine thousand party activists filled the Iowa hall, two thirds of them signed up to Clinton or Obama.
But it's the big F - fakery - that's reared its ugly head in the Clinton campaign which has now been forced to admit planting fake questions at some of her town hall events.
But it was Obama who won the theatrics award, with t-shirts declaring 'I'm fired up; he's ready to go' front and back, and even a special light show as the candidate burst on stage.
His speech wasn't half bad either, a reminder of why he was so well liked in the first place.
"When I'm this party's nominee, my opponent won't be able to say that I supported this war in Iraq. Or that I gave George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran. Or that I support that Bush-Cheney policy of not talking to leaders we don't like."
All great, liberal stuff, and a poke in the eye for Hillary's less than consistent opinions.
But it's the big F - fakery - that's reared its ugly head in the Clinton campaign which has now been forced to admit planting fake questions at some of her town hall events.
On Tuesday a college student was primed to ask a question about global warming - something initially denied by camp Clinton, which insisted planting questions was not a practice of the campaign.
Later the story changed - a staffer did "discuss a possible question... this is not standard policy and will not be repeated again."
Now The Nation has revealed that it's happened before, at least twice, on another Iowa trip back in April.
Not good for any campaign, least of all in the Hawkeye state which apparently takes particular umbrage at anything which smacks of deceit.
Even the Democrats biggest tubthumpers are now comparing Hillary's town halls with that staged press conference by Fema which dealt a huge blow to the organisation's credibility.
And Hillary's rivals can't resist rubbing it in.
John Edwards has already drawn comparisons with President Bush: "That's what George does," he said at the weekend. "George Bush goes to staged press conferences where questions are screened."
No wonder Clinton's polling guru Mark Penn is worried - admitting it's all created "a new dynamic and a different set of headlines". That's campaign speak for "Help! It's all going wrong!."
She's still way ahead in the polls. But the last few days have shown that this nomination, at least, is still anyone's to lose - and anyone's to win. All bets are off.
