As Hokkaido G8 begins, just one question - what can summits achieve?

2008 Hokkaido Toyako summit

The Hokkaido Toyako G8 summit in Japan, from 7 to 11 July, opens with a raft of lofty ambitions. The main themes are -

Economy

• rising oil prices
• stabilisation of financial market

Development

• Promotion of efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015
• Global food security - soaring food prices

Politics

• Strengthening of the "non-proliferation regime", specifically in regard to North Korea's and Iran's nuclear programmes
• To the backdrop of "situations in Afghanistan, Middle East Peace Process, Sudan etc", summit aims to set peace-building as a major cooperative field

Environment/climate change

• "Cool Earth Promotion Programme"
• Three principles for framework beyond 2012 -
  • all major emitters, including developing countries, to participate
  • flexibility and diversity
  • using energy conservation/other technologies to ensure compatibility between environmental protection and growth

Previous summits 2003-2007

Below are summaries of the main conclusions from the last five summits, together with scores from University of Toronto's G8 Research Group's compliance assessments.

The compliance assessment scores rate the extent to which members of the G8 have succeeded in achieving summit goals. A rating of +1 indicates full compliance; a rating of 0 indicates partial compliance; -1 indicates failure to comply.

2007

• Agreement to consider seriously a global goal of reducing greenhouse has emissions by 50 per cent by 2050
• Pledge to negotiate new global climate pact to extend and broaden Kyoto beyond 2012
• £60bn pledged to Africa to fight Aids, malaria and TB, but no specifics on timetable or individual contributions

University Toronto interim compliance rating: 0.33 (UK: 0.61)

2006

• Riven by discord over Middle East
• No financial commitment on agenda of energy security, combating infectious diseases and promoting education
• Russia failed to agree to ratify the Energy Charter, an international rulebook for oil and gas market activity

University Toronto final compliance rating: 0.47 (UK: 0.60)

2005

• Pledge to boost spending on Africa, though little new money
• Pledge to double aid to Africa by 2010
• Pledge to increase aid for developing countries to $50bn by 2010

University Toronto final compliance rating: 0.65 (UK: 0.95)

2004

• Agreed debt relief programme, but no write-off of African loans
• Extension of Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative, allowing poor states to write off some debt

University Toronto final compliance rating: 0.55 (UK: 0.67)

2003

• Structural reforms and greater flexibility in rich economies
• Tentative agreement over need to reconstruct Iraq

University Toronto final compliance rating: 0.51 (UK: 0.50)

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