A message to you, Rudy
Updated on 30 January 2008
Felicity Spector blogs on how Rudy Giuliani got his election strategy very, very wrong...
He thought he'd dreamed up the ultimate strategy - forget those pesky small states with a mere handful of delegates apiece - forsake the ice storms and the snowy wastes of Iowa and New Hampshire - for sunshine all the way.
Except Rudy Giuliani was very, very wrong.
He's just blown tens of millions of dollars on a dismal third place in Florida, where voters spurned his liberal social views and proved perhaps, once and for all, that the whole 9-11 schtick no longer has much political sway.
It's a long time since he was considered the ideal candidate - the man who could command a room, who would be comfortable commanding his nation, the celebrity city leader with a neat turn in rhetoric and a $47 million dollar war chest who could hardly wait to do battle with his old New York foe, Hillary Clinton.
Maybe his strategy wasn't entirely to blame though - as the New York Times comments: 'The more Republican voters saw of him, the less they wanted to vote for him'. Ouch.
He's just blown tens of millions of dollars on a dismal third place in Florida
Now it's John McCain - pretty much written off back in September - who's the presumptive front runner - especially if, as predicted, Giuliani throws his support behind him when he finally decides to quit.
And importantly for McCain - this isn't just a state with a significant number of delegates - it's also his first win in a primary confined to registered Republicans. In other words, he's proved he doesn't need the support of independents to win.
He's still got his work cut out when it comes to conservatives, though - exit poll details show he's still relying on the moderates and 'somewhat' conservatives - raising those old doubts as to whether he's really someone who could ever unite a demoralised GOP behind him, however much he's suddenly dropping Ronald Reagan's name into his stump speeches.
But what's the alternative? Governor Mitt - who's now urgently considering how much more of his personal finances he's willing to splurge. He's already dropped at least forty million bucks - not exactly small change, even to a man of his resources.
And his bid for the conservative vote is still being frustrated by Mike Huckabee, who seems determined to stay in the race despite his continuing poor showing. And even if he were to drop out, many of his evangelical supporters have hinted they might go McCain's way rather than vote for a Mormon.
So: Florida has enjoyed its moment in the sun. Now all eyes are on Super Tuesday - McCain's calling it close to a 'national primary'. With Giuliani's endorsement, he could well pick up some choice prizes - winner-take-all states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Maybe that's why, in his victory speech last night, he was calling Rudy his 'dear friend'.
There's nothing so friendly as a good political fight.
