US on course for first black president?
Updated on 03 October 2008
Jon Snow sticks his neck out on tonight's Snowmail...
The $700bn bill is going to go through in one form or another and the markets will jump with joy but the joy won't last long...
It's a hell-uva day news-wise what with the Mandelsonian rescue of Labour one side of the water and this side of the water Biden's performance for Obama and Palin's for McCain and then the amazing drama on Capitol Hill and yet perhaps the real story is only just emerging.
Let's take the financial collapse and the economic downturn. New figures today reveal 159,000 Americans lost their jobs last month alone, the ninth straight month in a row, bringing unemployment to about 6.1 per cent. Around 9.5 million Americans are now out of work and what's hurting the working American is destroying the McCain campaign.
Watch a brief history of the credit crunch here
US ON COURSE FOR FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT?
This country looks increasingly like it is on course for its first black president and it is hard to see how, in the remaining 32 days that can change.
McCain has just abandoned his campaign in Michigan. Obama now has a seven-point lead there, with 17 electoral votes written off for the Republicans.
In Ohio and Nevada, both critical swing states, Obama is now sporting significant leads. In Ohio it's 2 per cent; in Colorado it's 4.4 per cent; he even has a 3 per cent lead in once un-winnable Florida.
These are the daily tracking polls, add significant leads in states like New Mexico, and a surging 5 per cent in Minnesota and this is Barack Obama's "change you can believe in".
OK so I have stuck my neck out...but the way it looks at the end of this devastating two-week period (and that's not the end of the matter) is that the crisis may have tipped it the Democracts way.
BIDEN AND PALIN SPAR IN DEBATE
Tonight we'll be reflecting that and reflecting on the vote in the house on the great bailout bill. It's almost certainly going to pass as I said and in our time, so quite a programme in prospect, not to mention the amazing Biden-Palin debate.
I witnessed the first man/woman debate between Bush senior and Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. She won that then.
Last night Palin won too, so did Biden. She did what she had to do to stay alive and not drown the McCain ticket. If he sinks now he'll take himself down. She remains an icon for the right after last night. It was almost like something out of Come Dancing....
Yet despite being asked to do the foxtrot she persuaded with her samba instead, a dozen times simply avoiding the question and retreating to her strengths. Biden took the fight to McCain as Obama never has, Bushed him endlessly, for Biden a brilliant and ticket enhancing performance.
Watch Sarah Palin and Joe Biden's TV clash: here
This is a week in which American and world history is being made, not to mention British political history too, a week when for a journalist it's a joy to be alive. Watch tonight, you won't regret it, at seven on four, Jon.
FROM SAMIRA AHMED IN LONDON
'THIRD TIME LUCKY' FOR MANDELSON?
Peter Mandelson was speaking outside Number 10 a little while ago, and acknowledged the "third time lucky" view of his surprise return to cabinet, in Gordon Brown's government reshuffle.
What to make of Mandy's comeback? Supporters like former and newly returned party advisor, Derek Draper, say he's a highly capable organiser, who remains as committed to Labour, as when he masterminded the triumph of New Labour in 1997 under Blair.
Cynics, who remember his two resignations, over a questionable house loan from a wealthy friend and over a British passport for a millionaire Indian donor, see less altruism in his decision to come back from his soon-to-end EU trade commissioner post.
Is it more an indication of just how desperate Gordon Brown is? Garry Gibbon has been analysing the moves, with Margaret Beckett, Geoff Hoon and Ed Miliband all in and Caroline Flint moving to a new post.
Watch Peter Mandelson's statement here
BLAIR RESIGNATION ROW
Simon Israel has been delving deeper into the growing political row over Tory London mayor Boris Johnson's forcing out of Sir Ian Blair from his post as Metropolitan police commissioner.
Boris blasted over Blair resignation here here
See you at seven, Samira
AND ON MORE4 NEWS WITH KYLIE MORRIS
We're working on our own Mandelson-metre... to map the rising and falling values of the political stock of one of the most controversial figures in British politics.
And to mark last night's vice-presidential debate (which you can see in full on More4 at 11.15 tonight), we're on the Palin trail in Alaska, as Inigo Gilmore discovers whether she really banned certain books, including Pastor, I am Gay, from her local library.
See you at eight, Kylie
