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The most important political poll?

By Channel 4 News

Updated on 22 October 2008

PoliticalBetting.com's Mike Smithson on why anyone with an interest in politics should care about battleground Britain.

Everyone with an interest in politics and the outcome of the next general election should welcome the second Channel 4 News YouGov poll of what are termed "battleground marginals".

For unlike normal voting intention polls where electors in the 600 or so seats across England, Scotland, and Wales can be involved, this survey concentrates only on where it really matters - the seats that will determine whether David Cameron will lead the Conservative party to a victory with a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

So the survey covers electors in only 60 constituencies and these are where Labour is defending majorities of between 6 per cent and 14 per cent.

Thus the pollster is assuming that the places where Labour has very tight majorities are going to be lost anyway: what we have here is the next tier up.

This makes a lot of sense and is why I was so enthusiastic about the first Channel 4 News survey in September.


A key issue that pundits have been trying to resolve is whether voters are reacting differently in the marginals.

As well as just polling these specific seats, YouGov included another twist - respondents were asked how they would vote "if you were convinced that the only two parties with a realistic chance of winning in your constituency were Labour or the Conservatives?"

A key issue that pundits have been trying to resolve is whether voters are reacting differently in the marginals.

For here the main protagonists - Labour, the Conservatives and in some seats the Liberal Democrats - are channeling in a lot of extra resource.

There are targeted mail shots supported by professional telephone canvassing operations as well as other promotional activity.

The wealthy Conservative donor, Michael Ashcroft, has been putting substantial sums of cash into this and has been encouraging others to do the same.

This is an activity Labour is trying to outlaw through new legislation which is now going through parliament.

A big question is whether the "Ashcroft money", as it has become known, is having an effect and whether stopping it would impede the Conservatives.

There's another element as well. There have been suggestions that the recent improvements in Labour's poll ratings have been mainly in its heartlands where, in electoral terms, it does not really matter.

So, for instance, if Brown's party has been increasing its vote shares in Scotland that is hardly going to have an impact on the overall Conservative - Labour battle for there are so few seats north of the border where the Tories are in with a shout.

So what does the poll show? A month ago the first Channel 4 News survey suggested a Conservative majority of more than 150. Today that figure is down to just 54 which must give heart to Labour and its leader, having taken such a battering in the past 12 months.


A month ago the first Channel 4 News survey suggested a Conservative majority of more than 150. Today that figure is down to just 54.

The 6 per cent increase in Labour's share on the voting intention question and the 2 per cent drop in the Conservative figure is broadly in line with what we have seen elsewhere.

Remember, however, that the only people polled were in seats where Labour had at least a 6 per cent majority last time so this figure cannot be compared with standard polls.

But there is good news for the Tories as well. The last normal YouGov poll at the weekend suggested that the Conservative lead had dropped to just 8 per cent.

When the shares were put into the standard Commons Seat Calculators that are used to predict the number of MPs that the parties will get, a Conservative majority of just six seats was projected.

Even allowing for a small Conservative recovery in the past few days the fact that the projected majority from today's poll is at 54 seats does support the notion that Cameron's party is doing better in the marginals.

That fact alone should worry Labour strategists and make them more determined to stop the Ashcroft money.

Mike Smithson is the editor of PoliticalBetting.com

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