Parties to scour local elections for clues to national picture

Last Modified: 30 Apr 2008
By: Gary Gibbon

Leaders make final pitches before tomorrow's London and local polls

It was more Punch and Judy than Prime Minister's Questions in the Commons today. The party leaders hurled insults across the dispatch box as they made their final pitches to the electorate before tomorrow's local elections.

As well as votes for the London Mayor and Assembly, there are council elections in England and Wales. It looks like they could be tough elections for Labour - but will that tell us anything about the national political picture?

All three main party leaders used Prime Minister's Questions to get a last minute message across to voters. David Cameron leapt on the PM's admission this morning that he had made a mistake over not compensating all those who lost out as a result of the abolition of the 10p tax rate.

More than 4,000 seats are up for election on Thursday in 137 councils in England and 22 in Wales. And there are elections for the London mayor and Assembly. Labour holds around 1,000 of the seats that are being contested. It would be bearable but depressing to lose 100. Panic might be triggered if they lose more than 200.

The last time most of these seats were contested was 2004. Then, one year after the Iraq war, Labour won only 26% of the equivalent share of the national vote and came third behind the Liberal Decmorats.

But, one year on and Labour won the general election, and 36% of the national vote.

So the Labour leadership knows parties can bounce back when it really matters, but share of the vote is a potent symbol that can shape politics. The lousy showing in the last two sets of local elections contributed to the demand for Tony Blair to quit the Labour leadership early. Gordon Brown's supporters said his arrival at No 10 would turn things round. If it doesn't, if Labour's share of the vote has stayed the same or even dipped, that will trigger more panic amongst Labour MP's.

The mood changer on Friday though will probably be the London mayoral contest.

If the Toriy candidate, Boris Johnson, won in London it would be a massive shot in the arm for David Cameron's leadership, Ken Livingstone hanging on would be a massive relief for Labour. The Liberal Democrats' Brian Paddick will be hoping to improve on their 12% showing in the last mayoral contest.

So tomorrow doesn't tell you how people will vote in a general election. But it can shape politics. If the results induce mayhem in the Labour Party a big setback could become a turning point.

Most council results should be known by lunchtime on Friday, the London mayoral contest result is expected round about the time of this news bulletin on Friday night.