Orange parades main obstacle to NI deal
Updated on 26 January 2010
In Northern Ireland, the handling of Orange parades seems to be the main obstacle to any deal between the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein, writes Carl Dinnen.
Poor old Martin McGuinness. He waits three years (three years!) for someone to devolve policing and justice and then they all come at once AND keep talking until 3am (3am!). Except, of course, no-one's devolved anything yet.
The two governments and the parties are inside Hillsborough Castle now. The handling of Orange parades seems to be the main – but not the only – obstacle. The DUP apparently want the Parades Commission removed before they do the deal.
Now, the Orange Order hate the Parades Commission, but the order is only a part of unionism. In fact, a lot of unionists wouldn’t have too much time for the Orange Order. Perhaps more of the DUP’s voters would support them, but it still seems a strange thing to get stuck on.
NI election
An election hardly suits the DUP if Sinn Fein walk out of government over this and force a poll. On the one hand the Iris Robinson affair is still fresh in the minds of unionist voters. The QC appointed to look into whether Peter Robinson did anything wrong might be reporting back right in the middle of any election campaign. Even if Robinson emerges unscathed it would be an unwelcome reminder.
On the other hand Sinn Fein could well become the biggest party. That could leave the DUP facing life under Martin McGuinness, First Minister. The DUP might be able to avoid that by uniting with the other main unionist party, the UUP, but it looks like that would have to be closer to a merger than a loose alliance under assembly rules. And the DUP haven’t spent 30 years skirmishing with the UUP only to merge with them.
On the third hand they have the new "Traditional Unionist Voice" sniping at them from the right flank. Precisely the position from which they inflicted so much damage on the UUP so they know the dangers. It may be this that most bothers Peter Robinson, that is holding up this deal.
Out of the frying pan?
The irony is that the TUV leader Jim Allister tells me getting rid of the Parades Commission would only make things worse for the Orange Order as the Ashdown proposals which might replace it potentially give more power to Sinn Fein. Out of the frying pan into the fire he says. The Orange Order themselves are, perhaps wisely, keeping quiet.
So does Peter Robinson do the deal? Maybe. Maybe the Prime Ministerial double act gives him the political cover he needs. Maybe the alternatives are just too unpalatable.
