Labour: winning and spinning
Updated on 07 November 2008
"Glenrothes is an interesting story, seemingly a surprise result. But whether it feels like a lead by seven tonight depends on what happens elsewhere."
So opens the morning news meeting in the wake of a by-election victory for Labour that even their own officials said they weren't expecting.
It's spin. Generally you know in by-elections which way things are going. Doesn't mean it's not a good story but let's not get taken in.
The party was briefing late last night that its own exit poll data was pointing a 1,000 vote defeat. Perhaps even bigger.
Don't believe it, says a senior editorial voice.
"It's spin. Generally you know in by-elections which way things are going. Doesn't mean it's not a good story but let's not get taken in."*
Indeed those seeing it as evidence of a sustained 'Brown bounce' should note the anomalies. After all this was Scotland - in a constituency that neighbours Gordon Brown's - where Labour were effectively fighting in opposition.
Local issues - notably care homes - appear to have played as much a part in the result as Brown's handling of the economic crisis.
Nevertheless, prospects are far less gloomy for Labour than when this by-election was prompted by the death of the standing MP, John MacDougall, in August.
Then, in the wake of a stunning 22.5 per cent swing against in the Glasgow East by-election, Gordon Brown's survival prospects were grim.
Today there's even talk of an early election.
Word reaching members of the team is that May 2009 is back on the agenda. Framed in the context of a national emergency and a Tory party that is "all over the place at the moment" the early election option is likely to gain some momentum.
A voice saying as much tonight would help move the Glenrothes story forward, says someone.
There are some very interesting tales elsewhere on the prospects' list. Not least from our team in Congo who are looking to follow up last night's piece, a possible lead according to a senior voice.
We're also waiting on Barack Obama's first press conference since his election. He's expected to speak on the economy from Chicago but there's more than a chance the speech will fall 'out of our time'.
Finally, proof that 'interesting survey' is not always an oxymoron. According to Teachers TV, 30 per cent of teachers think creationism should be given same status as evolution in classroom.
*As a counterpoint to Labour's 'inaccurate' internal polling, here's some Democrat numbers leaked to Jon Snow hours before Barack Obama's victory on Tuesday night.
