FactCheck: trading recession stats
Updated on 18 March 2009
Gordon Brown makes international comparisons on unemployment and haggles with David Cameron about the start of the recession, but have they got their facts straight?
The claim
"Unemployment is higher in France, in Germany, in Japan, in America. It is higher in most of the other countries that we are dealing with."
Gordon Brown, prime minister's questions, 18 March 2009
The analysis
On the day that unemployment overshot the 2m mark and the International Monetary Fund forecast that Britain will be the last major economy out of recession, it seemed inevitable that the figures would dominate prime minister's questions.
David Cameron attacked Gordon Brown for the biggest rise in benefit claimants "since records began" and suggested the prime minister was "in denial" about the state of the downturn.
In return, Brown extended his usual line of defence that the recession was a global phenomenon, to insist unemployment in Britain was lower than the rest of the world.
At first glance he is correct. According to the unemployment statistics released in a report by the Office for National Statistics, in January 2009 unemployment in France was 8.3 per cent, in Germany was 7.3 per cent and in the whole of the Eurozone it was 8.2 per cent of the workforce.
In the US in February, the jobless figure stood at 8.1 per cent. Japan alone bucks the trend, as its unemployment rate was 4.4 per cent when last measured in December 2008, although the total number of unemployed people is higher than in the UK.
If Japan's percentage is overlooked it all backs up Brown's boast, as unemployment in the UK between November 2008 and January 2009 was 6.5 per cent.
Yet when the percentage changes over the last few months are compared the picture begins to falter.
The percentage change in unemployment in the periods measured was 0.5 per cent in Japan, the US and the UK, yet it was only 0.1 per cent in France, Germany and the Eurozone.
These figures become even more pronounced when looking at the change in unemployment over the last twelve months.
In the UK unemployment has risen by 1.3 per cent in the last year, whereas in Japan it has only risen by 0.6 per cent and in France by 0.7 per cent. In Germany it has actually fallen by 0.4 per cent.
Of the countries mentioned by the prime minister it is only the US where unemployment has risen more at 3.3 per cent.
So while the prime minister may like to boast among the big players, it might not last long. The UK seems to be losing this advantage as unemployment rises at a faster rate compared to most of "the other countries that we are dealing with".
Labour Market Statistics, March 2009, Office for National Statistics
The claim
"[Gordon Brown] says the recession started in July - the economy stopped growing in April last year - we've been in recession for almost a year."
David Cameron, prime minister's questions, 18 March 2009
The analysis
A recession is a prolonged contraction in the economy, usually taken to be two successive quarters of negative economic growth.
Quarterly growth figures are released with a slight time lag. The latest figures, out in January, showed the economy had declined by 1.5 per cent between September and December 2008. This followed a decline of 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2008 (revised down from an original figure of 0.5 per cent).
So it seems fairly clear - although it wasn't confirmed until the start of this year, the UK economy started to shrink at the start of the third quarter of 2008, in July, as Brown says today. That's certainly how the figure was widely reported.
But Cameron claims today that the rot set in back in April. The figure for this earlier quarter, released last August, put growth at zero - so, for the first time in years, the economy was stayed the same size rather than grew. It didn't shrink though, either.
It's true that the economy has been heading downwards for some time, and the government acknowledged we heading for recession well before the official figures confirmed it.
Back in November, the government's pre-budget report said both that "it is clear that the UK like many advanced economies has moved into recession" - and that the predicted decline in the last quarter of 2008 would see that we were in "technical recession".
But although there's no "official" definition of recession, based on the usual definition of it being two successive quarters of negative growth, FactCheck finds for Brown.
Office for National Statistics: GDP growth
The claim
"This government has announced the biggest rise in the dole queue since records began. That is a rise faster than under any Conservative government or any Labour government."
David Cameron, prime minister's questions, 18 March 2009
The analysis
Yes, this is the biggest rise since records began, but the comparable records only date back to 1971 - during which period there have been just four Labour and three Conservative prime ministers, including Gordon Brown.
Labour Market Statistics, March 2009, Office for National Statistics
The claim
"Fred Goodwin, oh sorry - Sir Fred Goodwin, because [Brown] knighted him for his services to the banking industry..."
David Cameron, prime minister's questions, 18 March 2009
The analysis
The former RBS head, pension-holder extraordinaire and all-purpose credit crunch bogeyman was indeed honoured for his services to the banking industry - not charity, as Brown's deputy Harriet Harman mistakenly claimed when she stepped in for the PM at question time two weeks ago.
Hansard, 5 March 2009
