FactCheck: high taxes, more repossessions?
Updated on 26 March 2008
How did Gordon Brown fare with today's gloomy economic outlook?
The claim
""Home repossession orders now stand at 100,000, the same as they were in 1990"
Nick Clegg
The analysis
Back to the dark homeowning days of the nineties, when interest rates hit double digits and thousands of people lost their homes. Are things really that bad now?
In 1990, 103,508 orders to repossess homes were made in the courts. In 2007, there were 95,374. Not quite 100,000, but still close enough to be worried, even allowing for any seasonal changes in measurements over time.
But it's worth remembering that a repossession order does not automatically equal repossession; things may still be sorted out between the parties involved. So how many actual repossessions were there?
In 1990 there were 43,980 - less than half of the number suggested by the repossession orders total.
In 2007, there were 27,100 repossessions - the highest this century, but still considerably lower than the 1990 figure.
When answering, Gordon Brown ticks Clegg off for painting too bleak a picture of the housing market, but is the PM's counter claim any better?
Brown said: "The number of repossessions last year was 27,000. In first two years of the 1990s it was 200,000."
As we've just seen, the 27,000 figure is pretty much spot on, but the comparable 1990 figure is 43,980. In 1991, it was 75,540, and in 1992, 68,540. So the first two years of the nineties actually saw a total of just over 110,000 repossessions, nearly half the figure Brown quotes.
Even adding together the two highest early nineties years - 1991 and 1992 - comes to just 144,080. Still a distressing number for those families involved, but not quite Brown's 200,000.
Sources
Statistics on mortgage and landlord possession actions in the county courts - fourth quarter 2007: DCA, 8 February 2008
PMQs, 26 March 2008
The claim
"1.5 million more homeowners now than in 1997."
Gordon Brown
The analysis
Make your mind up, Gordon. Not so long ago, Brown was showing off about the "nearly two million more" homeowners his government had created.
Back in 1997, 16,675,000 homes were owner-occupied. The most recent data - for 2006 - put the figure at 18,522,000, an increase of 1,847,000 over the decade.
These figures refer to the number of households, rather than the number of home-owners.
Since then, the goverment appears to have dropped to the more modest boast; the 1.5 million is the figure the chancellor chose in his budget speech last week, as well.
However, this isn't a huge change from the picture under the Tories - when home ownership took a greater leap under Thatcher's right to buy scheme.
Sources
PMQs, 26 March 2008
Council of Mortgage Lenders
FactCheck: mortgages under Labour
The claim
"At end of period of worldwide economic growth, the government has achieved a unique double: the highest tax burden in our history and biggest budget deficit in Western Europe"
David Cameron
The analysis
Sounds bleak, but let's look again at the tax burden under Labour. According to Treasury figures, the government raked in 35.7 of GDP in net taxes and social security contributions in 1997-1998, Labour's first year in office.
In the current financial year, it tots up to 36.8 per cent.
So a fair increase, but is it the highest ever? Not exactly; under the Tories, figures above 38 per cent weren't uncommon (for example, 38.5 per cent in 1981-81, or 38.7 per cent in 1984-85).
Sources
Treasury: public finances databank
PMQs, 26 March 2008
The claim
"We are not taking money out of the economy, we're cutting the basic rate of income tax to 20p"
Gordon Brown
The analysis
Overall, this month's budget will increase tax revenues by £2bn a year, according to the IFS. But from April the basic rate of tax is going down by 2p in the pound - and Brown mentions it not once, not twice, but three times during today's question session.
He doesn't mention even once, however, that at the same time, the 10 per cent starting rate of income tax is also getting the chop. Pretty important, this, because according to IFS analysis of the measure and others which were announced in last year's budget, those earning between £18,500 and £39,000 will be better off, but taxpayers earning up to £18,500 (or between £39,000 and £40,500) will be worse off.
Sources
IFS 2008 budget briefing
PMQs, 26 March 2008
The claim
"Unemployment is the lowest in Britain since 1975."
Gordon Brown
The analysis
This rings true for parts of Labour's tenure, but not right now. In 1975, the annual unemployment rate among those aged 16 and over was 4.2 per cent.
In 2001, it hit the lowest level since then: 4.9 per cent. In the following years it flip flopped up and down, getting as low as 4.7 per cent in 2005, but going back up to 5.4 per cent in 2006 and 2007.
Sources
Office of National Statistics
PMQs, 26 March 2008
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