FactCheck: Cameron's cast-iron guarantee?
Updated on 04 November 2009
What exactly did the Conservative leader David Cameron promise about a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and is he now breaking that promise?
The claim
"I said we would have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and if it hadn't been ratified we would have had that referendum.
"But I did not promise a referendum come what may because once the Lisbon Treaty is the law, there's nothing anyone can do about it and I'm not going to treat people like fools and offer a referendum that has no effect."
David Cameron MP, Conservative leader, speech on Europe, 4 November 2009
The background
Europe, that unexploded bomb of Tory passions, is one on which the fuse in David Cameron's hands has been sparking.
For the past two years, the Conservative leader has criticised Gordon Brown for denying the British people a referendum on the new Lisbon Treaty, which, among other things, creates the position of "European president".
Yesterday, the Czechs became the last of the 27 EU states to sign up to the Treaty, meaning - after a lengthy EU-wide ratification process - it is finally sealed to become law.
With a general election, and the chance to hold Britain's policy reins, still up to seven months away, the Tories conceded defeat on their campaign to put the Treaty to the vote.
Is this a U-turn on a key policy? No - said Cameron today in a speech setting out his new Europe policy - he hadn't promised a referendum "come what may".
Time to check the Conservatives' recent referendum rhetoric.
The analysis
First, a brief recap of the row over whether Brown was breaking his promise to the British people by not holding a referendum on the Treaty - something we've FactChecked in more detail in the past.
Who is right becomes a partisan argument too close to call: the government points out that its manifesto promised a referendum on the EU constitution, but that constitution was effectively vetoed by French and Dutch voters giving it the thumbs down before the UK had the chance.
Its descendant, the Lisbon Treaty, contains a lot of the same text, but omits some crucial components. Hence the government can argue - with some basis - that it's not the same document on which they promised a referendum; the opposition can argue - with some basis - that the government promised a referendum and didn't hold it.
Cameron has been pretty merciless in criticising Brown for parking the referendum.
Here are a couple of examples from parliament:
"The truth is that all of us in the House promised a referendum. We have the courage of our convictions and are sticking to that promise. The Prime Minister has lost his courage..." (5 March 2008)
["Gordon Brown] does not believe in giving people genuine choice and control over their lives. If he did, he would give the country a referendum on the EU constitution." (14 May 2008)
So what did Cameron promise to do himself?
His critics have seized on a promise he made in September 2007, back when the Lisbon Treaty was entering its final round of negotiations before Brown gave his signature.
Writing in The Sun, Cameron said: "If you really want to signal you're a break from the past, Prime Minister, do the right thing - give the people the referendum you promised.
"Today, I will give this cast-iron guarantee: if I become PM a Conservative government will hold a referendum on any EU treaty that emerges from these negotiations.
"No treaty should be ratified without consulting the British people in a referendum."
That pledge for a cast-iron guarantee, mocked today by former Home Secretary David Blunkett in the House of Commons as being flimsy as plywood, seems pretty unequivocal. He promised a referendum - how can he now break that promise?
We fall here into what feels a bit like another version of the argument over whether Brown betrayed Britain by dropping the promised referendum - critics of Cameron focus on the "cast-iron guarantee".
But the Conservative leader does seem to qualify things by saying nothing should be "ratified" without a referendum - so now the Treaty has been ratified, the warranty on his "cast-iron guarantee" expires.
So what did Cameron promise for a plan B if the Treaty was ratified?
Here things get a bit more slippery. In February 2008 during prime minister's questions, Brown repeatedly asked Cameron what he would do. Cameron didn't reply, pressing Brown instead about TV debates - although admittedly, this took place at prime minister's, rather than opposition leader's question time.
Cameron has also said, tantalisingly, that if the Treaty was ratified he "wouldn't let it rest", for example telling Andrew Marr last summer that: "What I've said is if it goes through and it's ratified by everybody and implemented we won't let matters rest there."
The top Tory brass have held pretty firm on the line that they only have one policy at a time; they want a referendum, and if the Treaty does end up being ratified, they will announce their new policy at that time, as Cameron did today.
The verdict
Cameron has campaigned so vociferously for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty that it's easy to think he gave a "cast-iron guarantee" to put the Treaty to the vote no matter what.
But when he used that now-famous phrase, he did appear to be talking about the Treaty pre-ratification, rather than undoing the signed-on-the-dotted line that will now become an EU-wide reality.
FactCheck rating: 2
How ratings work
Every time a FactCheck article is published we'll give it a rating from zero to five.
The lower end of the scale indicates that the claim in question largerly checks out, while the upper end of the scale suggests misrepresentation, exaggeration, a massaging of statistics and/or language.
In the unlikely event that we award a 5 out of 5, our factcheckers have concluded that the claim under examination has absolutely no basis in fact.
The sources
The Sun: Cameron - I'll give EU a vote
David Cameron interview, BBC One Andrew Marr show
Hansard
Your views
You've read the article, now have your say. We want to know your experiences and your views. We also want to know if there are any claims you want given the FactCheck treatment.
Email factcheck@channel4.com
FactCheck will correct significant errors in a timely manner. Readers should direct their enquiries to the editor at the email address above.
