FactCheck: EU referendum
Updated on 25 September 2007
Does the public want a referendum on Europe?
The claim
"An overwhelming majority of the British people want to have their promised referendum, more than eighty per cent in one recent poll."
William Hague, speech to the Centre for Policy Studies, 19 September 2007.
The background
The Sun has been keeping conference goers entertained with a series of amusing stunts to highlight its latest anti-European campaign.
Alongside pictures of Gordon Brown made to look like Winston Churchill, they have called for a referendum on the new European treaty, which will transform the way Britain and other nations interact with with the enlarged EU.
Opponents say it's almost exactly the same as the Constitution treaty which was rejected by European voters last year; and more importantly, Labour promised a referendum on the constitution in its 2005 manifesto.
Brown hardly mentioned it in his speech; but there is a growing campaign from the Conservatives and the right-wing press in favour of the treaty. Even some of his own MPs are calling for a referendum - Gisela Stuart argues for it in the Telegraph today.
But is this a just an issue for the political classes? Or, as William Hague implies, is there a genuine public desire for a vote on the new constitution?
The analysis
The poll William Hague is referring to ran in the Daily Mail last month. It does indeed suggest a big majority in favour of a chance to vote on (and most likely, vote against) the new European treaty.
82 per cent of people told pollsters that they want a vote; and despite their leader's apparent reluctance, 80 per cent of Labour supporters want one. The poll even claims that 13 per cent of Labour voters would consider switching to the Tories over the issue.
If that's true, it's a wonder that Gordon Brown can continue to resist calls for a debate on the issue.
However, just because people told a pollster that they want a referendum doesn't tell you very much about how badly they want one.
As Anthony Wells on the UK Polling Report blog put it, "polls invariably tell pollsters they like referendums on nearly anything you care to name: it is almost the equivalent of asking 'do you think your opinion on X should count?' - how many people's answer will be 'Crikey no, I'm a complete numbskull, don't give me a vote.'"
Ask a similar question about a referendum on, say, bringing back hanging, and you will get a significant proportion of people saying they want a referendum on the return of the noose.
Equally, the question about considering changing your vote overstates how likely people are to switch their votes. They may well consider it; but it doesn't tell you whether they actually would change it. But you can depend that it would be a good deal less than 13 per cent.
As Hague found himself in 2001, when he lead the party to calamitous defeat in a general election on a 'keep the pound' platform, people's views on Europe don't always affect how they vote at the polls.
Verdict
Both sides have a lot to lose on the treaty issue. Brown has promised a referendum on a slightly different treaty, and is now resisting calls for that referendum to happen.
The Tories hope that the public care enough about this to punish Brown for not giving them a vote. This poll doesn't suggest that they do.
William Hague has been here before - he fought the 2001 election on a strong anti-euro platform, pledging to 'keep the pound'. But it didn't save him from a landslide defeat.
FactCheck rating: 3
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The lower end of the scale indicates that the claim in question largely checks out, while the upper end of the scale suggests misrepresentation, exaggeration, a massaging of statistics and/or language.
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Sources
Daily Mail article
ICM poll
UK polling report
Centre for Policy Studies
