FactCheck: Cameron's conference speech 2009
Updated on 08 October 2009
Did David Cameron get his facts straight in his final conference speech before the general election?
The claim
"In Gordon Brown's Britain if you're a single mother with two kids earning £150 a week the withdrawal of your benefits and the extra taxes you pay mean that for every extra pound you earn, you keep just 4 pence."
David Cameron, Conservative party leader, speech to conference, 8 October 2009
The analysis
It sounds staggering, but it's possible. Respected think tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons 50,000 people are hit with this kind of level, though it's not the case, as Cameron speech suggests, that every single mother on this income would automatically be snared into an old-school Labour high-tax net.
The IFS said it was possible to have an effective marginal tax rate (the level of tax paid on every extra pound earned) of 95.5 per cent (almost, but not quite, the 96 per cent Cameron rounds it up to).
This would happen from a combination of paying basic rate tax, paying national insurance, losing tax credits, losing housing benefit and losing council tax benefit.
It's the loss of benefits and credits that's the real killer here. Losing tax credits would mean you were effectively losing 70 per cent of your extra earnings, rather than around 30 per cent which just goes on tax and national insurance.
To push it up to the really eye-watering figure, you'd have to lose housing benefit and council tax benefit too. And this is relatively unlikely - most people earning £150 a week wouldn't be expected to receive these benefits. You'd only do so if you had a particularly high rent and a high council tax, because they cover rent and council tax in full, and are phased out gradually.
The IFS reckons a total of 50,000 people are paying this effective marginal rate of tax of 95.5 per cent; 170,000 end up being dealt an 89.5 per cent blow. These wouldn't all necessarily be single mums with two kids, though that's not an unlikely example.
In terms of the whole population, 50,000 is a pretty small number - tax bands usually affect millions rather than tens of thousands. But for those 50,000.
The sources
Institute for Fiscal Studies
The claim
"We know that competitive sport is important but we've had minister after minister promising it and nothing ever happens."
David Cameron, Conservative party leader, speech to conference, 8 October 2009
The analysis
Not quite nothing. The government wants 5-16-year-olds to get at least two hours of sport in school, plus three hours out of school.
In 2003-4 62 per cent of pupils were getting two hours of school sport a week; in 2007-8 it had risen to 90 per cent, according to the annual schools sports survey.
This also found competitive sports to be on the increase - 66 per cent of pupils took part in competitions within their own schools in 2007-8, up from 58 per cent the year before. And 41 per cent of pupils competed against other schools - up from 35 per cent the year before. That means 500,000 more within-school competitors, and 375,000 more people competing against other schools.
The sources
DCMS press release
They Work For You
The claim
"Our national debt has doubled in the last five years."
David Cameron, Conservative party leader, speech to conference, 8 October 2009
The analysis
Depends how you measure it - in billions of pounds, Cameron's pretty much on the money: public sector net debt was £422bn in 2004-5; £792bn in 2009-10.
As a share of the economy - a useful comparison in historical terms, and how likely we are actually to be able to pay the money back - things are slightly less scary.
Debt is set to be 55.4 per cent of GDP this year. In 2004-5 it was 34 per cent - an increase of 63 per cent, or nearly two thirds.
The sources
Treasury public finances databank
The claim
"Next year, Gordon Brown will spend more money on the interest on our debt than on schools. More than on law and order, more than on child poverty."
David Cameron, Conservative party leader, speech to conference, 8 October 2009
The analysis
Next year the government expects to spend £42.9bn on the debt interest payments - it's an increase of around £16bn on this year.
The schools revenue budget - the costs of running the school system day to day - is set to be a billion pounds less: £41.9bn.
That said, more will be spent on investment (extra costs like new schools buildings) - the Department for Children, Schools and Families has a total of £6.8bn penciled. That's for the department as a whole rather than purely schools, although schools do make up the lion's share of the DCSF's work.
We haven't yet crunched out a figure for total law and order spending, although central government non-investment spending on the ministry of justice and the entire home office is a little over £9bn apiece. And to put things into perspective, campaigners estimate it would take just an extra £4bn a year to end child poverty.
The sources
Budget 2009
The claim
"And just a quick word to the man who says he abolished boom and bust and then saved the world."
David Cameron, Conservative party leader, speech to conference, 8 October 2009
The analysis
Sorry, Gordon we can't resist. We've looked at both of those statements in the past. More here:
FactCheck: saving the world
FactCheck: no more boom and bust
The claim
"I get enterprise. I worked in business for seven years."
David Cameron, Conservative party leader, speech to conference, 8 October 2009
The analysis
Cameron was keen to talk up his enthusiasm for an entrepreneurial spirit in Britain today. He talked of his own past in "enterprise" as an example of how he understood the real business world.
So what did he do for seven years? He worked as a public relations officer with ITV television company Carlton.
Certainly the commercial sector, but whether it would fall into most people's traditional understating of the word "enterprise" is another matter...
The sources
BBC: UK politics
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