Exclusive poll: economic recovery will not save Labour
Updated on 25 January 2010
Gordon Brown said today he was "confident" that the UK was finally emerging from the longest recession on record. But a poll, exclusively for Channel 4 News, finds that 72 per cent believe the economic news will not sway their vote.
The official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures - due to be released at 0930 tomorrow morning - are expected to confirm a return to growth for the UK economy.
And for many across Britain the news could not come soon enough.
Last month's figures revealed that the economy was still dragging its heels as the recession blighted the UK for a sixth consecutive quarter - making it the worst slump since the 1930s.
With an election looming the Labour government has strived to improve the UK market by ensuring a return to growth.
Conservative leader David Cameron claimed today that the government was putting "naked political calculation" ahead of Britain's economic interest.
But contrary to predictions that economic recovery could be a vote-winner for Gordon Brown an ICM poll, for Channel 4 News, has found that 72 per cent say the news will not sway their vote. (Download the poll results in full here - pdf file).
Just 12 per cent said the news would make them more likely to vote for Brown's government - although 10 per cent said it would make them less likely to vote for Labour.
Recession responsibility
When it comes to taking the praise for pulling Britain out of recession various bodies, including the government and the Bank of England, are ready to take responsibility.
But Channel 4 News has found that 32 per cent do not know who helped the UK economy recover. Only one in five people surveyed - 20 per cent - credited the government with improving the economy.
The poll also revealed that 46 per cent felt that they were financially worse off than 12 months ago with only 43 per cent feeling fairly confident about the future.
Labour strategists may particularly find the survey results worrying, as political correspondent Gary Gibbon writes:
"I understand that some of Labour's private polling has been suggesting that there's been a spiral of silence amongst voters who have felt embarrassed about being better off in a recession which is hurting others - these are mainly people in employment who benefit from lower interest rates.
"Labour strategists hope these folk will, once the recovery is formally announced, feel more comfortable admitting that they're better off and give some thanks to the government that presided over it. Precious sign of that in this poll though.
"It suggests 46 per cent feel worse off than they did 12 months ago, and most worryingly the groups feeling more worse off than others are the ones that turn out to vote - 50 per cent of the 35 - 44 age group, including lots of young families, often critical groups in marginals.
"Only 11 per cent admit to feeling better off than 12 months ago, and a lot of them are in the younger, lower-turnout age groups."
Read Gary's blog in full here.
Coming out of recession: poll results
Channel 4 News commissioned ICM to poll members of the public about Britain's recession.
ICM interviewed a random sample of 2018 adults aged 18+ from its online panel between 22nd - 24th January 2010. Surveys were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For more information visit www.icmresearch.co.uk.
View the recession poll results in full here.
- Q1: If Britain is officially out of recession by the time of the next general election, would this make you more likely to vote Labour?
- More likely to vote Labour: 12 per cent
- No difference one way or the other: 72 per cent
- Less likely to vote Labour: 10 per cent
- Do not know: 6 per cent - Q2: Which of the following do you think is most responsible for helping the economy recover?
- UK government: 20 per cent
- Bank of England: 14 per cent
- The private sector: 13 per cent
- The United States government: 3 per cent
- The EU: 1 per cent
- Other worldwide factors: 17 per cent
- Do not know: 32 per cent - Q3: Do you feel you and your family are better off or worse off compared with 12 months ago, or has there been no change either way?
- Better off: 11 per cent
- No change either way: 41 per cent
- Worse off: 46 per cent
- Do not know: 2 per cent - Q4: Considering your current financial situation how confident do you feel at the moment?
- Very confident: 5 per cent
- Fairly confident: 43 per cent
- Not very confident: 35 per cent
- Not at all confident: 15 per cent
- NET not confident: 50 per cent
- Do not know: 3 per cent
