Doomed to defeat?

Last Modified: 26 Jun 2008
By: Channel 4 News

Gordon Brown is the eleventh prime minister to take over the position mid-term in the last 100 years, but does precedent dictate his fate with the electorate?

Changes in the economy, mounting criticism and decisions on when to call an election are all familiar territory for his predecessors.

John Major: 1990-1997

John Major and his now infamous soap box defied the pollsters in the 1992 general election. His "common touch" campaign of giving speeches standing on said box won him a modest majority of 21 seats in the house of commons over the slicker Labour campaign, despite the downturn in the economy which began under his predecessor, Margaret Thatcher.

Just five months later interest rates hit 12 per cent and threatened to go higher on "black wednesday" as the UK crashed out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Sleaze stories plagued the government, including sex scandals and the "cash for questions" debacle, and Major battled internally with the staunch eurosceptics in his party.

In 1995, Major took his critics head on by forcing a leadership election. He emphatically defeated John Redwood by 218 votes to 89. Two years later he lost the general election by landslide to Tony Blair.

Callaghan's decision not to go to the polls may have proved to be the worst decision of his premiership.

James Callaghan: 1976-1979

Callaghan did not even have the luxury of winning a general election. His majority was small and he relied on support from the Liberals. Similarly to Gordon Brown, he was expected to call an election in the autumn of 1978 when he was riding high on a crest of popularity. Callaghan's decision not to go to the polls may have proved to be the worst decision of his premiership.

Just a few months later, the country headed into its "winter of discontent" as trade unions held a series of strikes in protest at Callaghan's policy of pay restrains. It made Callaghan and his government very unpopular, and he was forced to call an election in 1979 after narrowly loosing a vote of no confidence in the house of commons by just one vote.

The country appeared to agree with Thatcher's election slogan that "Labour's not working" and voted him out in favour of the Iron Lady.

Sir Alex Douglas-Home: 1963-1964

Douglas-Home took over as prime minister when Harold Macmillan, who was also appointed to the post mid-term, stepped down due to ill-health. Even though he resigned his place in the House of Lords to take up the premiership, Douglas-Home only stayed in number ten for just under one year.

Douglas-Home was part of Harold Macmillan government and so had to contend with being tarnished by the Profumo affair. When he had to announce a general election in 1964 he was widely expected to loose.

However, the election was hard fought and Harold Wilson took over with a majority of just four seats.

Eden did call an election almost as soon as he took over the top spot. It gave him a greater majority than his predecessor, Winston Churchill.

Anthony Eden: 1955-1957

Eden, in contrast to Callaghan and Brown, did call an election almost as soon as he took over the top spot. It gave him a greater majority than his predecessor, Winston Churchill, but his short period in office was marred by the Suez crisis and subsequent ill health.

Less than two years after he took up the position, Eden was replaced by Harold Macmillan. In 2004, Eden was voted the least successful prime minister of the twentieth century by political science academics.

Winston Churchill: 1940-1945 and 1951-1955 Churchill formed a total of three governments as prime minister - a war coalition, a post-war Conservative government and returned to the post in 1951.

The great leader of the war was ousted from the post almost immediately after it finished. He lost elections in 1945 and 1950, settling instead for heading up the opposition benches.

However, his resilience eventually paid off and at the age of 76 Churchill was re-elected to government. Four years later he retired from the post.

Neville Chamberlain: 1937-1940

Arthur Neville Chamberlain never got to contest a general election as prime minister. He took over from Stanley Baldwin, another mid-term successor, in 1937 and managed three years in the post.

Chamberlain's downfall was his "policy of appeasement" in his relations with Hitler. In September 1938 he returned from Munich and delivered his famous "peace in our time" speech. Just a few months later Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia and then Poland.

Chamberlain handling of the war was widely criticised, and he was forced to bow to pressure to form a cross-party coalition government. However, opposition from his own ministers and the Labour leadership's decision to refuse to join a coalition under him led Chamberlain to tender his resignation and recommend Winston Churchill as his successor.