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Brown poll lead cut to 4 per cent

By Channel 4 News

Updated on 04 October 2007

Could the Brown bounce be over? Has David Cameron done enough to stave off an early election? An exclusive Channel 4 News poll tonight, reveals interesting results.

In the first poll since Cameron's keynote speech in at the Conservative Conference in Blackpool, Labour's commanding 11 point lead of last week has shrunk to just 4 points. The news will add to Gordon Brown's worries about calling an early election.

The YouGov poll puts Labour on 40 points, down from last week's 44, while the Conservatives climb three points to 36 per cent. The Lib Dems are unmoved on just 13 per cent.

Research for this poll began the moment David Cameron finished his conference speech in Blackpool yesterday - and suggests that his long speech, delivered without autocue or notes, has been well received by voters.


The YouGov poll puts Labour on 40 points, down from last week's 44, while the Conservatives climb five points 36 per cent. The Lib Dems are unmoved on just 13 per cent.

The poll also found that enthusiasm for an early election has grown amongst the general public, although it is still a minority who favour an autumn election: 36 per cent said they thought it should go ahead, up from 26 per cent a week ago.

The Conservatives have apparently responded to David Cameron's call to 'bring it on.' Last week support for an autumn poll was almost even between the parties, around 30 per cent.

But Conservative voters have now taken to the idea in droves, and 48 per cent of them favour a contest this month or next. 35 per cent of Labour voters are in favour of an autumn poll, as do 37 per cent of Lib Dems.

Gordon Brown's strong lead amongst women has also fallen. In last week's poll, 47 per cent of women chose Brown, compared to 31 per cent of women. That sixteen point lead has now shrunk to just four points - with Brown on 41 and Cameron on 37.

The full poll results

You can download the full poll results, provided by YouGov here:
YouGov / Channel 4 News Survey Results (Microsoft Excel document)

The impact of David Cameron's speech the subsequent media coverage is likely to have exaggerated the size of the swing to the Conservatives. But if the result is supported by later public polls and Brown's own private polling, then it will make it very unlikely that Gordon Brown will risk an early election.

Reports earlier today citing senior Labour sources are already suggesting that enthusiasm for a snap vote is fading within the Labour camp - and this poll data will dampen the fever further.

The poll was conducted by YouGov between October 3 and 4. 1,741 adults were contacted for the poll.

Previous poll results

Channel 4 News commissioned another poll from YouGov earlier this month, which revealed that after Gordon Brown's conference speech Labour were 11 points ahead.

Read the report
See full poll results

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