5 Minute Guide: Lib Dem leadership

Last Modified: 31 Oct 2007

The race is on to succeed Sir Menzies Campbell as leader of the Liberal Democrats - the third leader in less than two years.

Why does it matter?

It has hardly set British politics alight - but the race to become Lib Dem leader will have significant ramifications for the future of British politics.

Two strong contenders are fighting for the helm of the party: Westminster and Oxford educated former MEP Chris Huhne is slugging it out with Westminster and Oxford educated former MEP Nick Clegg.

In 2005 the Lib Dems were fighting a shop-worn Tony Blair in the shadow the disastrous Iraq invasion, and a Tory leader fighting on right-wing issues like immigration.

Though Borges' famous crack about "two bald men fighting over a comb" comes to mind, the stakes in this battle are higher than they seem.

The Lib Dems are at something of a crossroads. After massive gains in the 2005 elections, they now find their poll ratings squeezed to 13 per cent or below - which threatens them with electoral wipeout.

This is partly their own fault.

Menzies 'Ming' Campbell never managed to escape the media's determination to paint him as a politician from another era, too old for the cut and thrust of 21 century politics.

But in 2005, the Lib Dems were fighting a shop-worn Tony Blair in the shadow the disastrous Iraq invasion, and a Tory leader fighting on right-wing issues like immigration.

With new faces at the despatch box - Gordon Brown and David Cameron both fighting for the centre ground - the Lib Dems have inevitably been squeezed.

But a new leader probably has a better chance of entering government than any Liberal leader since the war.

If poll ratings continue as they are, with Labour and Conservatives running neck and neck, there's a strong chance of a hung parliament - in which a Lib Dem leader could well hold the balance of power.

Who is likely to win?

Although this is officially a two-horse race, 40-year old Nick Clegg is the front runner by a long way. Handsome, youthful, and at ease in the 24-hour media maelstrom, he has been tipped as a future leader for some time.

Huhne's Achilles heel is his majority. Clegg holds Hallam by more than 8,000, but Huhne's Eastleigh constituency in Hampshire is a super-marginal.

His relative inexperience, having only won his Sheffield Hallam seat in 2005, prevented him from challenging Ming Campbell in 2006. He is most popular among Lib Dem MPs, claiming the support of 27 of them versus 10 for Chris Huhne.

But 53-year-old Huhne surprised many with his showing last time round, coming a strong second behind Ming Campbell as the campaigns of other leading contenders Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten collapsed in bizarre scandals.

He has impressed with his handling of the crucial environment brief over the past year, and is seen as being to the left of Nick Clegg.

This may not appeal to the party's MPs, many of whom are fighting off Tory challengers for their seats, but it could go down well with many Lib Dem activists, who are often further to the left than the party leadership.

Huhne's Achilles heel is his majority. Clegg holds Hallam by more than 8,000, but Huhne's Eastleigh constituency in Hampshire is a super-marginal. He won it by just 568 votes.

So if he gets elected, he would be torn between the demands of the national campaign and the street-fighting needed to hold onto his seat.

If he was defeated, the Lib Dems would be effectively leaderless at the start of the new parliament, when they could face delicate negotiations with Labour or the Tories on forming a coalition.

What happens next?

Nominations closed on 31 October, and the winner will be decided on a one-member, one-vote basis among the party's 70,000 or so members.

Ballot papers are sent out on 21 November, voting closes on 15 December, and the new leader is announced two days later.

Between then, the leaders will unveil their manifestos and attend hustings events around the country.

Huhne will have to find a powerful issue to win the activists away from Clegg if the race is not to turn into a procession.