The 'r' word: British Chambers of Commerce warns UK faces a recession

Last Modified: 08 Jul 2008
By: Newsroom blogger

Inside the morning meeting...

A gloomy British Chambers of Commerce survey warns the UK is "at serious risk" of recession, with service firms reporting "alarming" declines.

It's the predominant economic story of the day, but how much of a nail in the downward coffin is it? Is this the moment when it all went downhill, or just one in a series of post-credit crunch moments?

"To an extent, it's being used as a call to say that it's here - because they're saying the "r" word everyone's jumping."

But this doesn't necessarily mean we should jump too. "We're constantly being assailed by small businesses saying how good things are," point out two reporters from our business and economics unit.

What about other signs for the economy? Forecasts for unemployment - often seen as a tipping point - predict in the order of a 100,000 increase - bad but "not an apocalypse".

But housebuilder Persimmon has just confirmed it has cut 1,100 jobs this year. And Bradford and Bingley shares have tumbled in value again - the fate of the banking sector could be worth a separate report tonight.

"We're constantly being told that our money is safe, but could there be, if not a run, then a stroll to the bank?" wonders an editor.

No evidence of this as yet - but then, the Treasury and the FSA have told us that, if there was another Northern Rock situation, they wouldn't tip off the media.

Aid and Africa are on the agenda at day two of the G8 summit in Japan.

Our diplomatic editor Jonathan Rugman is watching for further details. "What about Zimbabwe? Will they heed Thabo Mbeki's advice, and try further diplomacy to halt a possible civil war?"

The Beijing Olympics kick, sprint and jump off a month today - our China correspondent Lindsey Hilsum has been looking at the country's manic efforts to top the medal table.

Anything else? "I was just thinking, science funding stories never make great TV, but..." starts our science correspondent hesitantly. Whether he can find a policy-related angle for the big cuts in physics funding remains to be seen at 7pm.