Tory crime ads under fire

31 March 2005
Figures quoted dubious on several counts


The Conservative Party is telling voters about a violent crime wave sweeping different parts of Britain.

Violent crime is up 260 per cent in Hertfordshire since 1998-99, according to an advertisement posted in the Herts Advertiser on 24 March.

In Thames Valley, similar adverts tell how crime is up 150 per cent. Even in rural North Wales it's up 128 per cent (see advert below). The Metropolitan Police and Northumbria have also been targeted.

However, these figures are highly dubious, as we explain below.

Richard Brunstrom, chief constable, North Wales Police told Channel 4 News:

"This misleading advert quite improperly seeks to stir up fear of rising crime when it is a well established fact that crime has been falling for years both locally and nationally.

"I'm disappointed in the extreme that it has appeared in the press in a very marginal constituency in the run-up to a general election."

So why are police authorities upset by these figures?

First, changes in the recording rules for violent crimes have artificially produced a significant increase in the recorded figures.

New Counting Rules Part 1

In 1998, the Home Office introduced some major changes to the ways crime was counted.

New categories of violent crimes were introduced, and some existing crimes were recategorised as violent crimes.

Cruelty to children and assault on a constable were added to the violent crime category. Meanwhile, common assault was altered to include assault where the victim wasn't injured.

According to Home Office figures, these produced a 118 per cent increase in the statistics for violence against the person, which accounts for the vast majority of violent crimes.

New Counting Rules Part 2

Another set of changes was introduced in 2002 with the launch of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS).

The NCRS made recording more victim-focussed. Police now have to record any crime reported to them unless there is evidence that the crime did not occur.

It also affected the way individual incidents are recorded.

Now, if one person assaults three people at the same time, the police can record this as three crimes even though it relates to the same incident.


North Wales Pioneer Advert

There's a second reason particular to Hertfordshire.

More Hertfordshire = More crimes

In 2000 the area that Hertfordshire covers was extended to take over part of the Metropolitan Police's territory. The extended area resulted in 23 per cent more crimes being reported, which in turn undoubtedly contributed to the dramatic rise the Conservative Party advert puts at 260 per cent.

So, working out the real picture of violent crime is not easy given all the difficulties with the Recorded Crime Statistics described.

British Crime Survey

An alternative source of information is the British Crime Survey (BCS). And this suggests that violent crime is actually falling.

The total number of violent crimes across the whole country recorded by the BCS has gone down from 3,247,000 in 1999 to 2,708,000 in 2004.

The British Crime Survey is by no means a perfect source, particularly for violent crimes. It excludes homicides and all crimes against the under 16s, while sexual offences are underreported.

However, the fact that the BCS suggests crime has fallen does raise further question marks over the steep rises referred to in the Tory ads.

Conservative response

Conservative co-chairman Dr Liam Fox said the party would not be apologising for the adverts. He said that even when changes in recording methods were compensated for, violent crime had risen substantially.

"If you ask people across the country what their greatest fear is, fear of crime is amongst them. We have had a million more violent crimes committed in out country last year.

"We are seeing a massive rise in violent crime the likes of which we have never seen, certainly in the last century," Dr Fox told Channel 4 News.

Association of Chief Police Officers

However, a statement issued by the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) read:

"The most recent crime figures demonstrate the success of the police service and its partners in reducing volume crime such as burglary and robbery. This has been achieved by focusing on crimes that concern communities most and on prolific and priority offenders."

"If we want to increase the fear of crime, the selective use of statistics can help in doing that."

Sources
Home Office Research Development Statistics website
Channel 4 News


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