Phil Spencer & Kirstie Allsopp, Channel 4 estate agents

Housing Market News And Views Kirstie And Phil On House Prices

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Date Published:
28/05/2008
Kirstie Allsopp, estate agent and Channel 4 property expert

Kirstie Allsopp

All this talk about the credit crunch is a red herring. The problem is not falling house prices but falling transaction levels, down by 26 per cent nationally. If supermarkets suddenly sold 26 per cent less groceries what would that say about our economy?

To give you an example: my first flat had a £72,000 purchase price - with £720 Stamp Duty. At today's prices, that flat would be worth £325,000, so the Stamp Duty should be £3,250. But instead it is £9,750! This sum represents nearly a third of the minimum 10 per cent deposit insisted on by banks at the moment.

Terraced street in West-Kensington London

Credit: Andrew Holt

The market simply cannot continue to be used as a bottomless pit of money by the government, it is being milked dry and the resulting stagnation is bad for everyone. No one can afford to move house anymore, this is not just about first time buyers it's about everyone. The cost of moving from Edinburgh to Manchester if your home was worth £300,000 would be £20,000 and over half of that money is tax, Stamp Duty and VAT on fees. If we reduce Stamp Duty, transaction levels will rise, prices will stabilise and the revenue due to the government could actually go up!

So, what's my advice at the moment? Don't sell if you don't have to. Your house isn't worth less than it was, but people aren't buying. There's a difference between needing to and wanting to move. If you don't need to, don't. People aren't buying unless they need to buy - all because people have lost their confidence. It takes a certain amount of confidence to sit it out.

And if you do decide to buy a house, bargain hard and aggressively - it's a fantastic time to try to be cheeky.

The views represented in this article are those of the author and not of Channel 4. The purpose of the article is to provide general information only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal or other advice.You should not rely on any information provided in this article and you should always seek out independent professional advice relevant to your own particular circumstances.

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  1. Your joking arnt you, people can't afford these high house prices. prices are dropping all around only the silly will keep thinking it's 2006, then you say lower the tax etc.. stamp duty hasn’t gone up house prices have, so if prices drop stamp duty drops no problem there. Why not reduce the price of a home? why is it so important to keep it high out of reach of many? if house prices drop you'll save more than a tax drop on higher prices, in fact the lower the price of a home the shorter the servicing period of your mortgage, not only cutting tax but cutting the time from 20 years to 10 years. Still be able to afford those luxuries of life while your still able too. Option high prices work for 30 years low house prices work for 10 which would you choose?
    Posted by peter on 14/02/2009 18:11:20
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  2. You said it all here Kirsty.... "£72,000 purchase price - with £720 Stamp Duty. At today's prices, that flat would be worth £325,000." You think its the stamp duty thats killing the market its the huge amount of debt you need to get yourself into to buy the flat. The stamp duty is negligible in comparsion to the fact that the majority of property in the uk has trebled in value over the last 7 years. People go on about riding the storm of the recession and waiting until better time to sell, but the recession is 100% due to unsustainable house prices and the lending associated with it.
    Posted by Bobby on 14/02/2009 18:01:51
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  3. David! You seem to be under the illusion that there are hordes of first time buyers out there with pockets bulged full of money. What never seems to be acknowledged is the fact that hundreds of thousands of people in this country are priced out of the market. Lower interest rates or a small drop in house prices are of no help at all because we simply cannot afford the over inflated prices that sellers have come to expect. Not everyone is on the so called average salary or higher. The bulk of Britains workers are on salaries between 12K to 15K a year and that includes skilled people. Building societies are asking for huge deposits on houses that are still overpriced and people have stopped selling, so I'm sorry but first time buyers are not going to come to the rescue of a housing market that is beginning to buckle under the weight of the sheer self-interested greed that has driven it to the brink! I'd love to get on the hosuing ladder - desperately so, but I just don't have the income, deposit or money available and I'm certainly not going to borrow 8 times my salary, so I can keep up with the pace. The market has got to return to some sort of normal levels or it's just going to get further out of reach for new buyers. People wanting prices to come down are not doom mongers either, they just want a fighting chance to put a roof over their head. A home should be for living in, not a cash cow to be milked for lavish lifestyles.
    Posted by Lee C on 05/02/2009 12:21:07
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  4. Hello Phil and Kirsty, Really enjoyed the programme tonight so thanks. I totally agree with both of your viewpoints. Firstly if you have property and don't need to sell, then sit this recession out, this is plain and simple. Secondly there are lots of different housing markets that exist with different clients with different circumstances that are joining or leaving the market. If you look at interest rates they are the lowest for 50 years, now is an excellent time to buy property, why is everyone convinced that its all doom and gloom, its just the media talking down the markets because the banks have lost their shirts. Everyone should be out three taking advantage of these interest rates and get the market going again, I mean first time buyers have wanted a price repositioning for years go on fill your boots.
    Posted by david on 28/01/2009 23:27:15
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  5. In this weeks programme you asked if you're looking to buy a property. We are in Chelmsford Essex we've been searching for 6 months, we looking for old country, character house 3 bed master with ensuite, good size plot with big garage and country views, upto 650k. We don't have to sell and would welcome Kirsty & Phils help, if poss Julie & Mark
    Posted by Julie on 16/01/2009 19:33:45
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  6. Dear Phil and Kirstie: We absoluteley love your show, have watched hours of location, location, but wonder when you will have some new shows out, now that it is 2009. We watch you on HGTV here in Nanaimo, B. C. Canada. Kind of sick of the reruns though, be great to see new up to date guests with more up to date home prices. Thanks for listening. Loretta.
    Posted by loretta Kirkbride on 09/01/2009 20:50:24
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  7. hi phil and kasty please iwould like you to advice me in properties,at the moment am renting but am finding it very expencsive so how about if itry for morgage will it work.
    Posted by halima on 22/12/2008 15:16:06
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  8. Unfortunately for us we need to sell!! We are moving to Oz and need to get moving sooner, rather than later. We have just accepted an offer which is £30K under the asking price (after some negotiation) Through our experience your house at the moment is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.
    Posted by Lancashire Lass on 09/12/2008 14:56:35
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  9. From Robert Peston's BBC blog of 1st Dec 2008: "The assorted surveys by banks and the Land Registry, together with anecdotal evidence, suggest that house prices are between 10 and 20% down from their peak - which, according to most forecasters, suggests that prices have another 15% to 20% to fall. House prices are taking weeks and months to find a floor, that low-point from which recovery can begin, because many potential sellers are biding their time, hoping that something will turn up - while buyers are waiting for a crash that delivers bargains."
    Posted by CannyScot on 01/12/2008 16:34:40
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  10. I think i would like to go on your show, as I'm in a great position to buy and would benifit greatly from your expertise. because of my age and experience i'm finding dealing with estate agents almost impossible. I get the impression the agent dont want to do business with myself. Regards
    Posted by Roy North East on 27/11/2008 19:24:44
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  11. Hi Kay As always when determining what price to pitch an offer, you need to research locally. There are ways of doing this that don't involve asking an estate agent, ie, you can go onto upmystreet.com and see what houses have been SELLING for in and around the street you're interested in. You also need to assess your own situation, ie, if you're a cash buyer, ready to go, the vendor might look more kindly on a lower offer. If you've not even sorted out your mortgage or had an offer on your home, I wouldn't expect them to accept it, let alone take a low one!
    Posted by Lucy 4Homes Ed on 20/11/2008 12:25:38
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  12. I watched the credit crunch programme on More4 last night. You seem to be saying that we shouldn't worry if we already own a house - we should sleep well, feel good, and know that we've made a sound investment. And yet, when you advise people on the offer price to buy, you knock 10% off the asking price and tell the seller he'd better accept because he'll get even less if he waits. Very confusing! I think the best view of the future is determined by the past. House prices at their recent peak we're 20% overvalued. They're now on their way down, and will undershoot their historic real values shortly. The undershoot will vary depending on where you live and the size of the local market, but expect a trough at 50% of historic real prices in London in two years time.
    Posted by CannyScot on 20/11/2008 09:12:16
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  13. In your Location, L... L... programme tonight (17 Nov)Phil had done some research and calculations to enable him to come up with an offer price. Without the benefit of the wonderful Phil and Kirsty, just what research should buyers be doing for themselves ?
    Posted by Kay on 18/11/2008 00:25:46
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  14. Thanks for all your comments everyone - keep them coming. Look out on Monday 17th for Location Location Location's credit crunch special, which should tackle some of the issues you've been talking about below.
    Posted by Lucy 4Homes Ed on 12/11/2008 14:19:57
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  15. the drop in the market is just the start of this huge crash, people have very short memories. The past is always clearer than the future. The banks will be lending 3 to 4 times the applicants earnings just like the did in the 90's so we will have 90's prices so brace yourself for more price drops. Anthony
    Posted by anthony lonsdale on 11/11/2008 22:14:22
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  16. I do hope you wont be promoting more buying of houses in this program, Thank god i sold my houses a few years ago and have rented since. I hope this new series is not going to be some attempt by these 2 to restart the property boom. an average house can never be worth ten times the average house (unless of course the banks are daft enough to lend ten times the average wage, which i doubt they will ever do again).
    Posted by mr dongsdale on 11/11/2008 21:42:44
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  17. Poor analysis of the property market. Unemployment levels, savings levels, and mortgage interest rates will be what determines the number of forced sellers in the UK property market over the next few years. Buyer volumes and power will be driven by LTV, income multiples and access to self-cert. It takes a property expert to miss these points.
    Posted by Michael on 10/11/2008 22:42:28
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  18. Having read these two articles (Kirsty & Phil) and looked at credit crunch survey, I am astounded by most comments. Most people only LIVE in one property, so it is irrelevant what it is worth. Similarly to move, in general, all prices will have moved in same direction so where's the problem? As K says, as with fuel, the real problem is over taxation. The other real problem is for people retiring now, their pension may have been rather suddenly devalued and equally their property equity has gone down.
    Posted by youcanonlyliveoneplace on 23/10/2008 11:19:11
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  19. "All this talk about the credit crunch is a red herring". Really?
    Posted by JS on 22/10/2008 13:28:23
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  20. I find it quite astounding that you continue to show property programs promoting property development, when 1000's of people are now hitting negative equity having been encouraged by your programs to buy in a totally overheated market. It is productions like onces produced by you that have fueled hugely inflated expectations and you must take part of the blame for the situation we are all in now. Why not show some sense of responsibility and dare I say humility and take these gastly property programs off the air.
    Posted by Richard on 21/10/2008 20:17:11
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  21. A quite astonishing attempt to dismiss the property market's woes on stamp duty and completely dismiss the disastrous consequences of the great credit trick that is at the root of the problems that the economy is now seeing. Lenders kept inflating the giant bubble by offering increasingly risky loans to people who could only afford them if the value of their property kept increasing......the merry go round was going faster and faster and there was ultimately only one result, that at some stage it would come crashing off it's hub. Money for nothing is a flawed principle but one that people repeatedly subscribe to, and when the ecomony follows suit it always ends in tears.
    Posted by tanners on 08/10/2008 11:22:14
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  22. In 2006 LLL said: "This week's show predicts that house prices could rise by as much as 47.4 per cent[/b] during the next five years." WHOOPS!
    Posted by Ben on 02/10/2008 14:49:50
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  23. Hi I live in London and I am buying a house (nothing is signed yet)for £305,000 cash I have nothing to sell and the house is vacant do you think I should wait to see what happens over the next few weeks or should I reduce my offer by a percentage. Does anyone have any advice for me
    Posted by mirium corr on 25/09/2008 06:55:43
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  24. Hi Kevin Can I point you in the direction of this feature: http://www.channel4.com/4homes/buying-selling/selling-property/essential-guides-and-advice/30-ways-to-sell-your-home-in-a-flat-market-08-08-15_p_1.html Should help.
    Posted by Lucy 4Homes Ed on 02/09/2008 21:32:18
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  25. hi,i live in newtowncunnuingham co. donegal 10 min drive into derry city n.i. i own my own home 3 bed semi utility room downstiars toliet the house is new build 2006 value @ £175,000. i am looking to move back to derry be closer to my mum and family with market been slow i have my house up for sale with 1 estate agents for 6wks no views as yet have you got any ideas on how to get peaple interested. I was thinking of putting the house on daft.ie the village where i live has a school churches 2 bars couple of eating place's and is 15 min drive to letterkenny town.the house is on daniel henry estate agents website my address is 19 orchard grove newtowncunningham co. donegal what tips can you give me for relocation and selling my house. thanks kevin
    Posted by kevin bonner on 26/08/2008 10:34:16
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  26. This is misleading - negative equity does not force people to sell as it has no impact on income and outgoings. A change in income/outgoings or situation forces someone to sell.
    Posted by Tim Parsons on 08/08/2008 11:39:08
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