The NAEA predicts that the UK housing market will hold steady and house prices will not fall in 2008 because of key underlying strengths.
Peter Bolton King, chief executive at the NAEA, said: 'At a very basic level, if supply is limited and demand is high then prices will remain stable or rise.
We know that supply is a problem for the UK - a fact highlighted by the government recently as it revised its house building targets upwards.
'Similarly, we know demand will continue to increase. The population is rapidly growing and at the same time the number of single person households is also on the rise. While the market may have been asked to weather some considerable storms recently, the basic supply and demand dynamic is what will help to keep it steady in the long term.'
Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at John Charcol, independent mortgage experts, points to the introduction of HIPs and the credit crunch as being major contributory factors in the slowdown in house prices. He remains confident, however, that any fall will not be too great, again based on a general undersupply of property in the UK.
He said: 'Although buyers are much thinner on the ground so are sellers, as many who don't need to move are not prepared to sell at less than they think their property was worth earlier in the year. This reduced supply will inhibit prices from falling very far.
'But one contra factor that will increase supply a little in 2008 - and reduce demand - is the significantly tighter criteria and higher pricing in the sub-prime mortgage market. As a result, some potential borrowers will be unable to get a mortgage, or if they can they will be unable to afford the rate they would have to pay.'
Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, the one voice in our poll of experts who feels prices will rise in 2008, bases his confidence on the wider economy perform relatively positively this year.
He said: 'Whereas the City [of London] economy is experiencing a more difficult phase, the wider economy is performing fairly well. GDP growth is forecast to slow from 2.9 per cent to two per cent next year, which would represent a fairly benign slow down. Price inflation and earnings growth are easing, and the pressure on base rates has abated.
'Consumer confidence monitors report that people are not worried about significant economic changes, ie, loss of employment, but they are concerned about every day issues: cost of living, taxes and the outlook for interest rates for example. Therefore, we believe that prices will rise next year by three per cent in 2008.'
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