The world’s volatile economy makes predicting the future a perilous and potentially foolish exercise. The financial events of the last few months have been so cataclysmic, unprecedented and largely unforeseen in their magnitude that no one can confidently predict what the next day might bring let alone the next year. That said, we all want an indication as to what the future’s likely to bring – not least in the housing market which is not only most people’s pension pot but also a national obsession. So we’ve asked the expert commentators to predict how the property market is likely to perform in 2009. Here’s what they forecast …
By Gordon Miller
4Homes Essentials
UK Property Search
UK Region’s Ratings
House Price Predictions 2009
Liam Bailey, head of residential research at agents, Knight Frank, says, ‘House prices in the UK peaked in late 2007 and have fallen sharply since that point. Our forecast suggests that we are now at least half way through the process of price falls, with around 15 per cent of an estimated 30 per cent peak-to-trough decline already factored into prices.’
Simon Wright, chief executive of house builder Simon Wright Homes, says, ‘I believe that by the latter part of next year, house price will fall at least another 10 per cent on current prices. In the south east in particular, I think we will see an overall drop of 20 to 25 per cent from the peak of the market in 2007.’
David Bexon, managing director of independent new homes property portal SmartNewHomes.com, says, ‘The lack of supply (of new properties) will hit home in certain areas in 2009, and while I expect a continued decline over much of next year, I do not expect new house prices to fall further than 15 per cent from their July 2007 peak. I believe we will have reached the bottom of the market by the end of 2009.’
Further house price falls are in store for 2009, which will be a ‘top to bottom’ drop of 15 to 30 per cent.
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