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House Prices House Prices: 2008 Predictions

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Date Published:
28/05/2008

Halifax reports that nationwide house prices fell by 2.5 per cent in March, but were 1.1 per cent higher than a year earlier.

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There were house price falls in six regions with the biggest falls in West Midlands (-5.0 per cent) and Wales (-4.7 per cent). There were also price declines in the South West (-2.6 per cent), Northern Ireland (-1.5 per cent), Yorkshire & the Humber (-0.5 per cent) and the North West (-0.5 per cent).

Martin Ellis, chief economist of Halifax, says, 'House prices fell by 2.5 per cent in March. Prices in 2008 Quarter 1 were 1.0 per cent lower than in 2007 Quarter 4. Overall, we expect there to be a modest fall in UK house prices this year. Any declines, however, should be viewed in the context of the significant price rises over recent years. The average UK price has risen by £120,860 during the past decade from £70,696 to £191,556; an increase of 171 per cent.

Most regions have seen a rise in prices over the past year, led by Scotland and Northern Ireland. Nine of the 12 regions of the UK have recorded an increase in house prices over the past year. The biggest rises have been in Scotland (5.3 per cent) and Northern Ireland (3.5 per cent). Three regions have experienced a modest fall in prices during the last 12 months: South West (-3.3 per cent), West Midlands (-3.7 per cent) and Wales (-5.3 per cent).

Following the release of the RICS housing market survey, Peter Bolton King, Chief Executive of the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) called for steadiness amongst property market professionals and said that there are still strong economic factors underpinning the market that have not changed and that there is some good news.

'The positive news is that the RICS survey showed that just under a quarter of its respondents appear to have reported a rise in house prices, which shows how regionalised the picture is. We are already aware from our own members that house prices are being affected differently throughout the country so to find such regional discrepancies comes as no surprise.

'No one is denying that the housing market is in a tricky situation, but it is important to keep it in perspective and we do need to exercise discretion in the figures. For instance, the report states that the East Midlands is showing falling prices, yet the recently released Halifax house price index showed a 2.2 per cent rise in the same region. This also needs to be set against the fact that these areas have seen huge price rises over the last ten years.'

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