Will our second leading estate agent agree with the first's opinion? Read on to find out...
According to Knight Frank, UK residential prices will fall 30 per cent from their peak, taking values back to September 2003 levels. Sales volumes will hit a low point in late 2008, at only around 30 per cent of their long term average. Sales volumes will recover to reach 60 per cent of their long run average by the second half of 2009.
Development land values outside London are already down 33 per cent from their peak, with a further 15 per cent to go in 2009. Equity rich investors and speculators are already in the market, targeting distressed land and property sales.
Liam Bailey, head of residential research, says, 'The central question for anyone who owns their own home is – when will prices stop falling? Our forecast suggests that we will be closing in on the bottom of the market during late 2009 / early 2010.'
'Prices in the UK peaked in late 2007 and have fallen sharply since that point. Our forecast suggests that we are now at least half way through the process of price falls, with around 15 per cent of an estimated 30 per cent peak-to-trough decline already factored into prices.'
'Some markets are experiencing very different conditions from the national or regional average. The regional new build sector has already seen substantial price falls, with examples of 50 per cent or more in several locations. It looks as if price declines are already coming to a close here – with investors sensing that “fair pricing” is almost at hand.'
'Prices will take some time to recover to their 2007 peak, a process which, on average, will be complete by 2015, led by central London (2012) and concluded by Northern Ireland (2019).'
'Our recovery picture is based on the assumption that mortgage providers will adopt a far more conservative lending approach once the credit crunch unravels. However, it is also worth noting that we do not have the oversupply problems of Spain and the US, and, indeed, a shortage of housing will become more apparent with time.'
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